The accessibility and affordability of wearables and devices such as power meters means amateur athletes have a wealth of cutting-edge performance data at their fingertips. Therefore, it has never been easier to compare yourself directly to a pro.
Putting metrics such as FTP and w/kg side by side will generally expose the huge physiological differences between a recreational rider and someone who does it for a living. But for some enthusiasts with similar numbers, could it reveal a missed calling in life?
Take my comparison with Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian has a VO2 max of 89.4 and a resting heart rate of 37 beats per minute; he has won four Tours de France, a Giro d’Italia, the World Championships, nine Monuments; and, at 27 years old, he's already compared to Eddy Merckx, the greatest of all time.
When I was last tested (albeit two years and one baby ago), I had a VO2 max of 75 and, according to my Garmin Forerunner watch, a resting heart rate that goes as low as 39.
Research suggests that world-class riders’ average VO2 max is 73, but I’ve only ever witnessed the WorldTour as a spectator at the side of the road; the closest I’ve got to The Cannibal Merckx is the William Fotheringham biography that sits on my bookshelf; and, at 33, I’m probably past my peak for a tilt at the Tour de France.
But with my above-average physiological benchmarks, could I have had a shot? And can I still put them to use as a competitive age-grouper?
- Read more: What is VO2 max and can you improve it?
Most important metrics
“On its own, VO2 max isn’t irrelevant, but you need to have more information to get a bigger picture of that person,” explains cycling coach Pav Bryan, master cycling coach at HumanGO, where he’s known as Coach Pav.
“There are lots of different metrics that could give insights into potential, and you would want to look at as many as possible.”
Bryan explains that, in addition to VO2 max, he’d also want to know things such as lactate thresholds and VLamax (maximal lactate production rate – the anaerobic energy system’s peak).
“The best riders have probably got a very high LT1 where they’re able to ride nearly endlessly for a very long time and barely use any carbohydrates or glucose as fuel.
“The best WorldTour riders that can climb have probably got massive FTPs or LT2s because they have to be able to break away and push high without accumulating too much lactate or being able to be resourceful with carbohydrates as fuel.
“I only have anecdotal data, so I couldn’t say for certain on accuracy, but professional cyclists are often reported to have above 300W for LT1 and above 450W for LT2.
“If we took an average weight of 65kg – this is probably the higher end as sprinters will be included in this – we would be estimating this as 4.6W/kg and 6.9W/kg, respectively.”
In addition to hard data, Bryan says riding and training history can also be an indicator of potential.
“[Performance metrics] are all trainable, so unless someone has already spent several years training in a structured manner, having low metrics (or combinations of metrics) doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t have potential.
“Similarly, high metrics don’t necessarily show potential if someone has been training for several years or longer, as they may have reached their potential already.
“The win is finding someone with naturally high metrics and without several years of structured training experience.”
Getting scouted
This is the dream scenario for any scout, and the search for the future Olympic and World Championship winners can start as young as 12.
British Cycling’s Talent Development Pathway is renowned for its success as the first step in a production line of gold medalists and WorldTour and Women’s WorldTour riders. Alumni include Geraint Thomas, Tom Pidcock and Tour of Britain Women points winner Cat Ferguson.
British Cycling works with a network of clubs to spot future talent, and riders are fed into the pathway. But how do they determine who’s got potential worth investing in?
“There's a series of time benchmarks that we use as measures on the track, as well as a series of road racing results and observations to measure where they're up to,” says Rob Sharman, British Cycling’s road and track talent development team leader.
For the endurance-leaning athletes, who range from 12 to 16 in age, this includes explosive velodrome-based efforts such as a standing lap and the kilo time trial, as well as longer endurance events such as the Omnium on the track, and road races and time trials.
“It's not exclusively about results – it's about process and performance,” Sharman says. “It just so happens that if you're doing that right, then the results will normally come.”
Power data is kept in the background – “under-16s are learning to deliver and commit to efforts. Some of them need a number on their back to get the best out of themselves” – with weighting also given to strength and condition attributes, bike-handling skills and technique, and off-bike characteristics such as commitment and communication.
“Within that, we can generally capture where they're at, and also what are the most important development needs for them for the next step – the limiters and the areas of strength – and that's our sounding board for capturing where the rider’s up to.”
The aim isn’t the WorldTour or Women’s WorldTour, but the riders progressing to the upper levels of the pyramid, which tops out at podium – essentially world and Olympic champion potential.
“At my point in the talent development pathway, things are kept very simple and focused on personal development as well as the bike rider development. We keep it weakness-focused, and they can make huge gains in development that way,” Sharman explains.
Could I have been in the WorldTour?
“There are loads of physically talented people out there, but it takes more than that,” says Sharman. “It takes a lot of circumstances, but it also takes a huge psychological component – resilience – for you to be able to maximise your potential.”
Pavey agrees. “I've worked with loads of age-groupers and that jump between podiuming in an age-group to professional athlete is huge. It takes more than the genetics of being able to have that massive potential, but a lot of it is access – if you’d got caught by British Cycling’s Go-Ride programmes 15 years ago, you could have had the right support and coaching to get there.”
“The one thing that's consistent that I've seen in riders that have come through is their motivation to be the best they can be, and you can't give that to someone,” adds Sharman.
“You can't coach that in someone – that's got to come from their own inspiration, from inside, and that's come from some form of experience or ignition in them that sparked their interest and enthusiasm.
Making up for lost time
In WorldTour rider terms, Pavey explains I’d be approaching the twilight of my career, but as an age-grouper, I’m at “an interesting age”.
“The age you're at right now is the one where most people don't realise how much potential they have with the right training – as long as you're not 33 with 15 years’ worth of structured training experience," he says.
“It's all about that 50-year-old threshold, and for most people, 35 is where, if you can start, you're going to see consistent gains for quite a while.”
"A structured training plan would therefore be a good place to start, and one that fits you, rather than a generic, one-size-fits-all plan.
“That’s what coaching does: it tries to make sure that you're doing the right things for you. You could have two physiologically identical people, but if one's got a kid and one's not, the training has to be different.
“I would look at the amount of time the athlete has – the age-grouper who's got five to eight hours per week is probably doing a lot more threshold training than somebody who's doing 12 to 15 because they're going to want to spend much more of the time in zones one and two.
“Also, if you think about it as a macro cycle – a year, nine months – you're going to do some form of everything.
“Even my athletes who do Race Across America [the coast-to-coast ultra-endurance bike race] do intervals at certain times during the year because it's still going to be important to have that, even just for their mentality to get some difference in there.”
Learn by failing
It’s not only about improving performance metrics and realising potential to become a competitive age-grouper, though.
“You could have all the best numbers in the world, but if you can't hold a wheel, you're going to get dropped. A lot of that's confidence, practice, technique and working on your position as well,” says Pavey, who recommends adding two or three throwaway ‘C’ events in the build-up to your A race to get used to in-race situations such as riding in a peloton.
Sharman agrees and suggests a holistic approach to finding shortcomings in your skillsets. “You discover weaknesses by getting out there and committing fully and failing,” he says.
For his developing riders, this would involve progressing to the highest level that they’re capable of doing without it being destructive to their confidence. “For you, it'd be the equivalent, and see how it went. What were you good at? What do you need to be better at? And work on that.
“The rider who succeeds the best is normally the rider who has failed the most. Get out there and fail as many times as you can and find out where your weaknesses are and how to be better. That's where that mental resilience comes in – the bravery to fail, get back up, try again and be better.”
