The arrival of 32in wheels, the growing popularity of adventure riding and the fact that XC bikes are simply better than gravel bikes will prompt the return of the alloy XC hardtail in 2026.
The short-travel alloy XC-ish hardtail was once a stalwart of any brand’s line-up, but these days, they often get ignored.
The most budget of budget mountain bikes will always be of this ilk, and there are still plenty of good options at the lower end of the market.
But the mid- to upper-end market for an alloy XC HT is currently as dead as a dodo – they’re almost never covered in the media, or seen on the boutique shop floor or the trails.
However, there are a few shifts in the industry that will make their mark in 2026, and I see a resurgence of the humble alloy XC hardtail on the horizon.
32in wheels are here to stay
To start, love or loathe the concept, we will see 32in-wheeled mountain bikes being launched in 2026.
As with 29ers, it’ll be the XC racers who get hold of these bikes first. And with World Cup-level bikes being the focus of innovation, expect most 32ers to feature a rear shock.
However, brands – wheels, forks and tyres included – will be looking to capitalise on their investments, speccing newly tooled components as widely as possible.
As such, while flashy carbon bikes will dominate the headlines, I suspect we’ll also see mid-priced alloy 32in hardtails coming into the mix to ensure the big-wheeled hype can be exploited further down the price list.
Gravel has had its time
Next up, the cash cow that has been gravel will face increasing competition from modern XC hardtails.
While the long dirt roads of the US Midwest will always suit a road bike with slightly knobbly tyres – and let’s be real, that’s what gravel bikes are – on our side of the pond, my own anecdotal evidence is that many riders drawn to the freedom from tarmac afforded by gravel bikes are eschewing drop bars for flat ones.
I've covered thousands of kilometres on gravel bikes over the past decade, but the past year? Probably not even 100. Yet my XC bikes have taken a pasting.
The reality is that, unless you’re on tarmac, a light, fast hardtail with 2.35in XC rubber and a 100-120mm suspension fork is faster, and crucially, more fun.
Many looking for the lightweight feel of a gravel bike, but the capability of a mountain bike are going to be looking at the alloy or carbon side of things.
Bikepackers will turn to XC hardtails
This ties into my next point – riders from all spectrums of cycling are looking for adventure. Social media has enabled long-distance ultra races to blow up in popularity, and while gravel bikes are a common sight, within this niche community, XC bikes – being the more comfortable option – are on the rise.
Bike brands love to give the impression that buying their new bike will push riders to the ends of the world. Adventure is cool, brands want to capitalise on this, and people don’t want to swamp a £10,000 carbon gravel race bike in bikepacking bags.
As such, the obvious answer, for many, will be that cheap(er), light(er) alloy hardtail.
They're an affordable antidote to eMTBs
Finally, there’s the ever-growing presence of electric mountain bikes – the current darling of the cycling industry that has saved brands and retailers alike.
They offer riders who are short on time or lung capacity an opportunity to get out into the hills and smash down descents with ease.
But, once again, if my eMTB-riding pals are anything to go by, there’s a lure to a simpler life, for a bike at the opposite end of the MTB bell curve.
It won’t replace eMTBs, but a simple, light alloy hardtail is a cheap and fun alternative to the big and burly eMTB that gives you a new (or returning) perspective on the trails available from the front door.
So, there we have it. I’m going to stick my neck on the line and predict that 2026 will see the alloy hardtail rise from the doldrums and become a much more popular sight on your local trails.
