An update to Shimano’s E-Tube Project app strongly suggests that next-generation Shimano groupsets will go 13-speed – and the brand will potentially add 13-speed compatibility to its existing groupsets.
First spotted by a BikeRadar reader and confirmed by us, the app now shows a new 13th cog on the ‘Gear usage rate’ view.
This all but confirms Shimano’s next-generation groupsets will get an additional cog.
The addition of a 13th cog would not only bring Shimano in line with its competitors but, alongside a trickle of patents and leaks over the last two years, this latest development gives the strongest hints yet at the potential trajectory of future road and gravel groupsets.
We have contacted Shimano for comment.
Dura-Ace 1x for the road?
Going 13-speed would mean Shimano isn’t left trailing behind its contemporaries in the drivetrain arms race.
Where Campagnolo has gone 13-speed across the board with Super Record 13 and SRAM offers the option of 13-speed on its 1x XPLR AXS groupsets, Shimano’s latest road bike groupsets top out at 12-speed. The same is true of its gravel and mountain bike groupsets.
This alone may be reason enough to add a 13th cog, but we suspect the glaring absence of a native 1x drivetrain option in Shimano’s road bike line-up is the more likely reason to add another cog.
Shimano has long resisted the move to 1x on the road, maintaining that 2x offers the best balance of range, cadence control and efficiency for road riding.
However, 1x has seen widespread uptake in the pro peloton for certain races, and is the near de-facto option for time trial racing.
This has led to many instances where Shimano-sponsored teams use third-party components or setups the brand would not officially endorse.
Although 12-speed is already sufficient for many 1x riders, moving to 13-speed would offer greater range or closer steps between gears, and align Shimano with its rivals.
That said, a patent filed in 2023 showed a 13-speed 2x groupset, so we wouldn’t rule out a Campagnolo-style shift to 13-speed across the board from the Japanese giant.
13-speed gravel patent confirmed?
If not for the road, earlier reporting suggests 13-speed could be coming to Shimano’s gravel groupsets.
The same patent as above showed a fully wireless 13-speed drivetrain concept with a clutch-equipped rear derailleur for off-road use.
Again, where SRAM now offers 13-speed 1x setups for its XPLR range, Shimano will not want to be left trailing in its wake.
More speculatively, an earlier patent filing reported on BikeRadar in 2023 suggests Shimano may adopt a UDH direct-mount style standard.
This patent shows a direct-mount derailleur design that – like SRAM’s full-mount derailleurs – attaches coaxially to the rear axle rather than a conventional hanger.
Like SRAM, Shimano may adopt this to make space for a 13th cog without needing to resort to a new, narrower chain.
Outside of patents, as noted by Warren Rossiter in his analysis of Shimano’s latest gravel tech, the slow uptake of new GRX groupsets also hints that a more substantial change could be coming.
OEMs will be aware of Shimano’s plans long before the public and media, and where the latest generation of GRX may be viewed as a “placeholder”, a new groupset gives brands something more substantial to talk about. It’s possible the industry is holding out for a new, 13-speed option.
Backwards compatibility?
Although the reference to 13-speed has appeared before any confirmation Shimano is working on a new range, it’s notable this was spotted on a configuration page for a current generation 12-speed groupset (we tested it on a bike equipped with Ultegra R8100 Di2).
It's theoretically possible to add 13-speed compatibility to any Di2 groupset because there are no hard mechanical stops on an electronic groupset.
And, as seen with the likes of Wheeltop’s groupsets, it could be programmed to shift across additional sprockets – provided the throw of the derailleur is sufficiently wide.
However, we’re less convinced by this possibility. Shimano hasn’t previously made new Di2 groupset generations backwards-compatible with older ones, so there isn’t a precedent to suggest it would do so this time round.
Still, it’s a tantalising possibility, and one we’re sure would be welcomed warmly by the market if Shimano were to offer riders a simple upgrade path rather than requiring a full groupset replacement.
What about mountain bikes?
At the time of publishing, we were unable to confirm whether there’s any mention of a 13th cog in E-Tube for Shimano’s mountain bike groupsets.
However, given Shimano’s latest Di2 mountain bike groupsets were released only last year, we think it’s unlikely a switch to 13-speed is imminent.
SRAM has also not adopted 13-speed for its mountain bike groupsets. And where cadence control is less vital on mountain bikes, and range already sufficient for most riders, there’s a less compelling case overall to add a cog off-road.
